2011 California Fire Season Outlook

This preliminary outlook is a product of the National Seasonal Assessment Workshop held virtually during the week of April 18th, 2011. The interagency workshop brought together subject matter experts from climatology, fire weather meteorology, fuels, fire behavior, and fire danger. The outlook is based on past developments, current conditions, trends, and predictions for the months May through August.

The objectives of this executive summary are to:

• Provide a prognosis of 2011 wildland fire potential in California, based on fuel conditions and available climate forecasts.
• Highlight concerns and key implications for management.
• Provide supporting documentation regarding weather and fuels information.
• Provide the framework for comprehensive final North Ops and South Ops outlooks to be completed in June.

This executive summary should aid California wildland fire managers in 2011 fire season preparedness, and add preliminary insight. More detailed fire season outlooks, for both North and South Ops, will be available in June. Those documents will give increased detail regarding all aspects of the coming fire season, and will have higher confidence levels. In addition to this outlook, the GACC Predictive Service Units at Riverside and Redding will continue to issue detailed monthly assessments of fire weather and fire danger.

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